MACHINA Read online

  The general, in the past so unyielding and fierce and as fast as the wind, he hesitated, but Katsuyori failed to notice this subtle attempt at expressing displeasure.

  Perhaps I can show him, the general thinks.

  “My Lord! I will lead the attack myself!”

  Katsuyori nodded dumbly as the veteran fastened his fierce war mask and called out to his troops. “I will lead the next charge!”

  A cheer went through his corps of riders.

  The general sighed as he mounted his horse.

  ***

  Lesson #1: Clear Separation between MOL, QOL, Means

  You must – MUST – separate out your goals for MOL, QOL, and Means.

  The battle of Nagashino was the largest disaster in Takeda history; they would never recover; afterwards, the way was clear for Nobunaga’s forces to unify Japan.

  There were MOL, QOL, and Means-based aspects to the battle – a more veteran commander than Katsuyori might have seen the larger picture, but the 29-year-old was gravely outmatched on the battlefield by the generalship of Oda Nobunaga.

  Yamamoto Tsunetomo would later record the spirit of the era, as it was coming to a close: “The way of the samurai is death.”

  Honor and service and ferocity combined Meaning-of-Life, Quality-of-Life, and Means for those Takeda soldiers.

  But was their goal to die on the battlefield, or to win?

  If their goal was to die honorably, if that was meaningful to them, then who could protest it?

  And perhaps retreat was too shameful, perhaps one’s quality of life would be forever blemished if they withdrew.

  Perhaps.

  But what of the Means?

  In your own life, you’ll get into a lot of trouble when you are unable to separate why you are doing things, and how you are doing things.

  What was the point of Nagashino? A display of fierce honor in unrelenting hostile conditions? Was the survival and prosperity of the Takeda clan more important, or less important, than conditions of honor?

  Did they undergo fierce cavalry charges towards a means of political and spiritual unification of Japan? Or was ferocity on the battlefield an end in itself, a meaning of life?

  One cannot say. We might ask the Takeda themselves, but we cannot; they have perished and there are minimal surviving records of the thoughts of their defeated leaders.

  ***

  Lesson #2: Accurate Assessment of Means

  You must accurately assess your current means in relation to the situation at hand, in relation to rivals, and in relation to the domain you choose to operate within.

  Very few things are quite as damaging as barely falling short. The culprit? Mis-assessment of one’s means, one’s capability. A few hundred years later, the economist Keynes would quip, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

  Yes, you might have a wonderful short-selling strategy in the market; what of it, if you run out of money and get a margin call against you, and need to trade in your shares at a huge loss?

  The Takeda had the best generals and a powerful cavalry. They were by no means obsolete in 1575, but firearms had changed the battlefield, and Oda Nobunaga was one of the greatest rapid innovators in Japanese history.

  The Takeda cavalry had won powerful victories – right up until Nagashino, where Nobunaga had deployed his battlefield engineering skill, setting a trap for the headstrong and inexperienced Takeda leader, which he charged into – again and again – until his forces were no more.

  ***

  Lesson #3: Regularly innovate QOL and Means improvements.

  Even if you are die-hard set on MOL, you cannot march relentlessly into adversity without breaking down.

  Nobunaga was often accused of acting dishonorably in pursuit of his goals. Firearms were somewhat disliked and seen as dishonorable by “true samurai” of the day; fighting with archery, spear, and sword was seen as more honorable.

  Battlefield engineering was rather new; the rapid improvised anti-cavalry engineering of Nobunaga was the end of the Takeda forces.

  You cannot march straight towards MOL without regularly seizing QOL and Means boosts to your cause.

  No matter how dedicated you are, you must constantly and neverendingly search for fundamental improvements in how you do things.

  ***

  THE END OF AN ERA

  He had resigned his heart to death, and hopefully Katsuyori would see.

  “Old friends! We die here. Make it a good death!”

  And he spurred his horse forwards in the driving rain.

  In the front of the pack, he did not even hear the loud CRACK from a hundred guns firing, unhorsing him, collapsing on the muddy bank, killed instantly.

  Wikipedia: Battle of Nagashino –

  “The horses slowed to cross the stream and were fired upon as they crested the streambed within 50 meters of the enemy. This was considered the optimum distance to penetrate the armor of the cavalry. In typical military strategy, the success of a cavalry charge depends on the infantry breaking ranks so that the cavalry can mow them down. If the infantry does not break, however, cavalry charges will often fail—with even trained warhorses refusing to advance into the solid ranks of opponents.

  “Between the continuous fire of the arquebusiers’ volleys and the rigid control of the horo-shu, the Oda forces stood their ground and were able to repel every charge. Ashigaru spearmen stabbed through or over the stockades at horses that made it past the initial volleys, and samurai, with swords and shorter spears, engaged in single combat with Takeda warriors who made it past the wooden barricades. Strong defenses on the ends of the lines prevented Takeda forces from flanking the stockades. By mid-afternoon, the Takeda broke and fled, and the Oda forces vigorously pursued. […] Eight of his famous 'Twenty-Four Generals' were killed in this battle, including Baba Nobuharu, Yamagata Masakage, and Naito Masatoyo.”

  It was the end of an era.

  The Takeda would fight defensive actions for the next few years, before being finally destroyed at Tenmokuzan in 1581.

  ***

  AND WHAT OF PHILOSOPHY?

  The Hagakure reads,

  “Among Takeda Shingen’s retainers there were men of matchless courage, but when Katsuyori was killed in the fight at Tenmokuzan, they all fled. Tsuchiya Sozo, a warrior who had been in disfavor for many years, came out alone, however, and said, “I wonder where all the men are who spoke so bravely every day? I shall return the master’s favors to me.” And he fell alone in battle.”

  And all that, for what? The brave deaths of so many Takeda cavalry would come to naught.

  At the end of the day, your philosophy is advanced only by skillfully managing your means. Philosophical soundness aside, history is unkind to the losing side.

  Do remember! –

  1. You must be disciplined about your “Meaning of Life,” “Quality of Life,” and the “Means” of getting there – and define them separately; know why you are doing things and how you will do them; do not muddle them all together.

  2. Accurately assess your Means in relation to everything happening around you: the situation at hand, rivals, the objectives, the landscape in general. Situations change and you must constantly reassess them. The Takeda went from having undisputed mastery of the battlefield to being weak against entrenched gunners, and realized it – far too late.

  3. No matter how dedicated you are to MOL-type goals, you must constantly look to innovate and improve the QOL and Means of yourself and your allies. Mastery and excellence do not linger long without improvements.

  Nobunaga is said to have been particularly pleased when Katsuyori’s head was presented to him. If Takeda Shingen had been alive, perhaps all of Japanese history would have run differently – but then, things do change; it’s the nature of things.

  As for Nobunaga – well, we’ll start getting to know him next chapter.

  For now, do please start clarifying and carefully separating your goals in regards to Meaning
of Life, Quality of Life, and Means.

  Vantages #2: Below the Bar

  ODA HEADQUARTERS AT ZENSHOJI: JUNE 1560

  There is a feeling of desperation in the air – except for their ostensible lord, the 26-year-old Oda Nobunaga, who is surprisingly calm. He is playing with a flower, twirling it around whimsically.

  Well – the young man was always something of an idiot. Here it is, likely nearing the end of the Oda clan, and he is carelessly twirling a flower around.

  If the Oda are lucky, they will be made vassals and servants. If they are unlucky, their leadership and high command will be executed or forced to commit ritual suicide.

  Their home province sits on one of the pivotal crossroads in central Japan, and Imagawa Yoshimoto is marching the largest army in Japan through their position. 40,000 Imagawa soldiers are on the march.

  The opposition force is not much to behold: the Oda have 2,000 soldiers. Bravery and defense of one’s home is worth some extra advantage, but nowhere near enough to overcome 20-to-1 odds.

  The veteran samurai generals and retainers all know it.

  Except, unfortunately, their idiot young lord, who is playing with a flower.

  One elder retainer speaks up: “Let’s just surrender. It is not so bad to be under Imagawa. They have treated the Matsudaira well enough – is it so bad to lose our independence but keep our lives?”

  There is some empty posturing and anger at the response, spirited discussion at headquarters.

  Another general speaks up:

  “Morishige and Genba have not returned yet! Perhaps some allies will intervene – to the east, there’s –”

  He’s interrupted rudely:

  “ – there’s what? They have forty thousand soldiers. What are the most that would come to our defense? Another ten thousand, perhaps? We are lost.”

  A grey-haired retainer speaks up: “We can dig in at Kiyosu… perhaps if some allied support comes… perhaps we could hold fast until the harvest season and winter… with a desperate fight, perhaps…”

  It is all fantasy.

  There is desperate blustering all around, a mix of resignation and prayers.

  Breathless messengers on horseback arrive from Morishige and Genba.

  Nobunaga glances up as they make their reports.

  Bad news, but not unexpected –

  The Imagawa have assailed their outer positions.

  No help is coming.

  Nobunaga doesn’t speak, smiles a little – stupidly – and twirls his flower.

  ***

  THEIR VERY WEAKNESS INVITES ATTACK

  “That is why, then, his language is a language of strong governments and weak governments. It is the same as speaking about strong persons and weak persons. Publius uses the same language later [...] when he says a weak government, even when not at war, is ever agitated by internal dissension; and internal agitations never fail to bring on fresh calamities from abroad. Their very weakness invites attack.” – The Federalist Papers: A Commentary, Allen and Cloonan

  "Power is difficult to assess, and the willingness to vindicate it too various, to permit treating it as a reliable guide to international order. Equilibrium works best if it is buttressed by agreement on common values. The balance of power inhibits the capacity to overthrow the international order; agreement on shared values inhibits the desire to overthrow the international order. Power without legitimacy tempts tests of strength; legitimacy without power tempts empty posturing.” – Diplomacy, Henry Kissinger

  ***

  THE SEVENTEEN-YEAR-OLD LORD

  We meet the young Oda Nobunaga today.

  Not the Oda Nobunaga who conquered and unified Japan, but the Oda Nobunaga who inherited control of his clan as a 17-year-old.

  He was known to be a frolicking idiot – all the texts agree; this is no later propaganda.

  Here, let’s have one of Japan’s foremost novelists paint the backstory for us. From Eiji Yoshikawa’s “Taiko”, Chapter: “The Idiot Lord” –

  "Be quiet," Otowaka said, looking hurt. "Since I don't think young men should have to spend their lives like me, I have something to say to them. After the coming-of-age ceremony, they're considered adults, but when they're seventeen, they have to be men already. It's a bit irreverent, maybe, but look at our master, Lord Nobunaga. How old do you think he is?" He started to tell her but then quickly changed the subject, perhaps for fear of getting into an argument with his wife. "Oh, yes, we'll probably go hunting with His Lordship again tomorrow. Then, on the way back, we'll practice fording the Shonai River on horseback and by swimming. Have my things ready—a cord for my armor, and my straw sandals."

  Hiyoshi, who had his head down, listening, raised it and said, "Excuse me, sir."

  "Being formal again?"

  "I don't mean to be. Does Lord Nobunaga go hunting and swimming that much?"

  "It's not my place to say it, but he's an awfully mischievous lad."

  "He's wild, is he?"

  "You'd think so, but then there are times he can be very well mannered."

  "He's got a bad reputation from one end of the country to the other."

  "Is that so? Well, I guess he's not very popular with his enemies."

  ***

  AN AWFULLY MISCHEVIOUS LAD

  There is now some debate as to just how intentional Nobunaga was being. He frolicked – hunting, swimming, falconing – and got into a whole lot of trouble. Before his father died, he was already behaving like a spoiled brat.

  Wikipedia: Oda Nobunaga –

  “Through his childhood and early teenage years, he was well known for his bizarre behavior and received the name of Owari no Ōutsuke (The Big Fool of Owari). He was known to run around with other youths from the area, without any regard to his own rank in society.”

  He behaved rudely at his father’s funeral and often seemed to neglect important duties.

  In retrospect, we must ask some questions.

  Was it all a ruse?

  We cannot say.

  Nobunaga was involved in a vicious dynastic dispute with his younger brother at first, and then he was surrounded by powerful enemies in the Imagawa and Takeda.

  Some people think the foolishness was all a ruse, Nobunaga to look stupider than he was – after all, Nobunaga was indisputably a genius, highly creative, and often used deception and misdirection to fool his enemies.

  Or perhaps he wanted to be “close to the people” – and breaking from formal court etiquette, which seemed so foreign and bizarre, allowed him to size up who could make the most excellent soldiers, officers, commandos, and compatriots. Nobunaga eventually did assemble a fine officer corps, excellent ninja, excellent scouts, excellent armorers, excellent gunsmiths, excellent advisors… well, excellent everything. So perhaps the bizarre behavior was cover for him wanting to break from his station and size up who on his side was reliable.

  Or perhaps he was just, in modern American parlance, a big dumb frat boy. And somehow he got away with it.

  Who can know someone’s mind? Was Oda Nobunaga reckless and crazy?

  Or crazy like a fox?

  We cannot say for sure.

  ***

  VANTAGES #2: BELOW THE BAR

  Our lessons this chapter is a very simple one, and a very powerful and important one –

  “You need to be able to perceive if things are above the bar (i.e., good enough) or below the bar (i.e., not good enough), and you need to make sure your people can as well.” – Principles, Ray Dalio

  It sounds simple, but is actually a rare ability that must be cultivated.

  I ask you, dear reader, not to just read for enjoyment while nodding and smiling, but to actually try to burn this lesson into your mind. Think, muse, ponder – it will be key to your own affairs.

  As Dalio says, you must be able to perceive if things are above the bar (good enough) or below the bar (not good enough). And you need to make sure your people can do so, as well.

  And what if things are below t
he bar?

  Well, this calls for action of some sort.

  ***

  “IS THERE ANY WHO IS BORN AND DOES NOT DIE? … BRING MY ARMOR”

  A bilingual blogger has translated some of the Shincho-Ko Ki, one of the primary sources of the life of Nobunaga.